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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 27, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Atlanta Thrashers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 69% of the time.

CAR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL018311114443
CAR0609019034

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:46ATLRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:43ATLEvgeny ArtyukhinAssists: Chris Thorburn, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P2 17:43ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Bryan Little, Pavel Kubina · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–0
  4. P3 18:05ATLJim SlaterPPAssists: Colby Armstrong, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.05 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:38ATLRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
  2. P1 8:30ATLPavel Kubina: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:10CARZach Boychuk: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 19:43ATLClarke MacArthur: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 3:54ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 19:39CARBrian Pothier: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 17:44CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCAR
43Shots on goal34
5.2Expected goals3.8
71Shot attempts71
42Faceoffs won19
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
28Hits26
18Blocked shots12
6Giveaways5
11Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.8 xGATL 5.2 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1110 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.75 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 69% of the time.

CAR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).