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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 27, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 1

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.

LAK winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0739110426
LAK11201008130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:52LAKMichal HandzusPPAssists: Ryan Smyth, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:17DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:20DALBrad RichardsPPGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:15DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Stephane Robidas · Slap, 0.34 xG3–1
  5. P3 0:48DALSteve OttPPAssists: James Neal, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 11:50DALKarlis Skrastins: Interference2 min
  2. P1 14:51DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:13DALBrandon Segal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 19:13LAKWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:42LAKSean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
  6. P2 3:10LAKJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 7:22DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min
  8. P2 8:07LAKMichal Handzus: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  9. P2 9:05LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 12:45DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
  11. P2 12:45LAKSean O'Donnell: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 12:45DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 19:25LAKRyan Smyth: Interference2 min · PPG
  14. P3 2:24LAKJeff Halpern: Interference2 min
  15. P3 3:31DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
  16. P3 10:52DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Ott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALLAK
26Shots on goal30
3.4Expected goals3.1
43Shot attempts60
24Faceoffs won37
7Power plays7
16Penalty minutes16
31Hits24
11Blocked shots4
10Giveaways17
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.1 xGDAL 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #834 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.

LAK winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).