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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 28, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Calgary Flames 5, Washington Capitals 3

Away

Calgary Flames

5

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.

WSH winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY4131702522
WSH04210120334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:33CGYAles KotalikAssists: Rene Bourque, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:28CGYIan WhitePPAssists: David Moss, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
  3. P1 10:34CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Rene Bourque, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P1 19:40CGYNiklas HagmanGWGAssists: Ian White, Matt Stajan · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–0
  5. P2 3:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Knuble, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
  6. P2 17:34CGYRene BourqueAssists: Craig Conroy · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–1
  7. P2 18:51WSHDavid SteckelAssists: Quintin Laing, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
  8. P3 4:48WSHMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 3:08CGYSteve Staios: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 8:01WSHMike Green: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
  3. P1 11:14CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 11:14WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 11:14CGYCory Sarich: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 1:45CGYAles Kotalik: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 3:02CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  8. P2 7:57WSHTomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 3:45CGYJamal Mayers: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYWSH
22Shots on goal34
3.2Expected goals3.4
43Shot attempts86
33Faceoffs won33
2Power plays5
15Penalty minutes9
19Hits31
27Blocked shots12
4Giveaways18
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.4 xGCGY 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #450 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.91 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.

WSH winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).