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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 28, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR1921018020429
PIT110216113062545

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:23TORColton OrrAssists: Wayne Primeau, Rickard Wallin · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:49PITTyler KennedyAssists: Craig Adams, Mike Rupp · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:54TORPhil KesselAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:29PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brooks Orpik, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:43PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:35TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom, Rickard Wallin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. P3 5:38TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–3
  8. P3 17:12PITMatt CookeAssists: Jordan Leopold, Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  2. 2. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  4. 4. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
  5. 5. PIT Pascal Dupuis scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:27PITRuslan Fedotenko: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 13:45PITMark Eaton: Interference2 min
  3. P2 11:12PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 15:23TORChristian Hanson: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 19:53PITTyler Kennedy: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P3 3:43PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P3 6:18TORFredrik Sjostrom: Hooking2 min
  8. OT 3:23TORFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackPIT attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORPIT
29Shots on goal45
3.0Expected goals3.8
55Shot attempts63
31Faceoffs won26
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
16Hits23
8Blocked shots16
1Giveaways5
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.8 xGTOR 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #33 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.83 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).