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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 28, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Edmonton Oilers 1, St. Louis Blues 2

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.

STL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM1100608124
STL0711618231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:22EDMPatrick O'SullivanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:43STLErik JohnsonPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Paul Kariya · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P3 7:36STLKeith TkachukGWGAssists: Brad Winchester, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:17STLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 14:27STLJay McClement: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 18:57STLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:57EDMDean Arsene: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:27EDMZack Stortini: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 8:51EDMDean Arsene: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 17:04EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Holding2 min
  8. P3 1:30STLRoman Polak: Delaying game2 min
  9. P3 4:00STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 5:30EDMAaron Johnson: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 11:01STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 11:01EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 12:04STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMSTL
24Shots on goal31
1.7Expected goals2.4
47Shot attempts57
30Faceoffs won31
5Power plays4
18Penalty minutes20
18Hits25
18Blocked shots10
2Giveaways6
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.4 xGEDM 1.7 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #692 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.41 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.

STL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).