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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 28, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Colorado Avalanche 3, San Jose Sharks 4

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.

SJS winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL014219112345
SJS11018214432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:51SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:20COLKevin PorterAssists: Cody McLeod, Ruslan Salei · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:42COLPeter MuellerPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Chris Stewart · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:37SJSJed OrtmeyerAssists: Logan Couture, Douglas Murray · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:32SJSDan BoyleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:03COLPeter MuellerAssists: Kyle Cumiskey, Milan Hejduk · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
  7. P3 14:11SJSDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe · Deflected, 0.37 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 6:19COLMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 6:19SJSBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 6:19SJSBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:54COLKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 10:15SJSJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
  6. P2 11:11SJSJed Ortmeyer: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Marleau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLSJS
45Shots on goal32
3.2Expected goals3.3
66Shot attempts58
35Faceoffs won22
3Power plays1
4Penalty minutes8
29Hits27
16Blocked shots14
1Giveaways13
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.3 xGCOL 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #236 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.03 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.

SJS winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).