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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 29, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.

BOS winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF21111408333
BOS114014114242

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:43BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Zdeno Chara · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:56BUFTyler MyersUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P1 11:34BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:08BUFTim KennedyGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P3 14:23BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Tuukka Rask · Snap, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
  1. P2 3:47BUFMark Mancari: Holding2 min
  2. P2 9:13BOSMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 18:13BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFBOS
33Shots on goal42
2.1Expected goals2.8
51Shot attempts58
25Faceoffs won29
1Power plays2
4Penalty minutes2
12Hits23
12Blocked shots8
4Giveaways6
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.8 xGBUF 2.1 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #806 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.

BOS winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).