Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 29, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 63% of the time.

ATL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR092825422
ATL14013010127

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:06ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:52CARBrandon SutterAssists: Ray Whitney, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:23CARJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter, Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P3 15:49CARErik ColeAssists: Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:52CARJussi JokinenENAssists: Eric Staal, Brett Carson · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 8:29ATLChris Thorburn: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 13:22CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 16:31CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 0:23CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 0:31ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 7:08ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 7:08CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 13:31CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 19:00CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 3:39ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 6:15CARErik Cole: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 6:15ATLJim Slater: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 6:15CARErik Cole: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 18:22ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARATL
22Shots on goal27
2.0Expected goals2.7
49Shot attempts51
29Faceoffs won37
4Power plays6
19Penalty minutes25
16Hits16
19Blocked shots20
1Giveaways14
11Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.7 xGCAR 2.0 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #789 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 63% of the time.

ATL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).