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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 29, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Nashville Predators 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.

FLA winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NSH041911100324
FLA0601221100229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:41NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P3 3:12FLAKeith BallardAssists: Stephen Weiss, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:53FLAStephen WeissAssists: Jason Garrison, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:53NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Steve Sullivan, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:54FLAVictor Oreskovich: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 19:17NSHShea Weber: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 4:20FLASteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 4:20NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 8:26NSHPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 13:11NSHRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reinprecht won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHFLA
24Shots on goal29
2.5Expected goals1.8
53Shot attempts47
29Faceoffs won28
1Power plays3
11Penalty minutes7
19Hits26
9Blocked shots13
1Giveaways5
0Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 1.8 xGNSH 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLANSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #283 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.03 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.

FLA winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).