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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 29, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Los Angeles Kings 2, Minnesota Wild 3

Away

Los Angeles Kings

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.

MIN winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK06112113231
MIN052817320

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:19MINOwen NolanPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Andrew Ebbett · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:26MINBrent BurnsAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P2 12:47LAKScott ParseAssists: Jack Johnson, Brad Richardson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:25LAKScott ParseAssists: Brad Richardson, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:38MINMartin HavlatPPGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 0:33LAKRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 6:07LAKJeff Halpern: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P2 6:59MINMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 7:52MINOwen Nolan: Holding2 min
  5. P3 2:00MINNick Schultz: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 2:00MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 7:03LAKFreddy Modin: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 14:52MINNick Schultz: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKMIN
31Shots on goal20
2.4Expected goals1.8
69Shot attempts35
29Faceoffs won31
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
9Hits20
10Blocked shots24
3Giveaways7
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 1.8 xGLAK 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #437 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.44 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.

MIN winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).