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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 29, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Dallas Stars 1, Anaheim Ducks 3

Away

Dallas Stars

1

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 88% of the time.

ANA winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL05112014131
ANA013318015346

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 8:11ANANick BoninoPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:41ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Matt Beleskey, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 13:30ANAKyle ChipchuraAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
  4. P2 14:48DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 2:15ANATroy Bodie: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 10:34DALBrian Sutherby: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 14:41DALLoui Eriksson: Holding2 min
  4. P2 6:48DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:29ANATroy Bodie: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 19:34DALFabian Brunnstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P3 10:12DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Ott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALANA
31Shots on goal46
2.0Expected goals4.9
50Shot attempts66
22Faceoffs won32
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
25Hits25
11Blocked shots7
11Giveaways7
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 4.9 xGDAL 2.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANADAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1023 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 88% of the time.

ANA winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).