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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Boston Bruins 1, New Jersey Devils 0 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.

NJD winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS013090814134
NJD06050703021

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. OT 4:41BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Mark Recchi, Mark Stuart · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
Penalties (5)
  1. P3 7:03BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
  2. P3 9:51BOSMatt Hunwick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P3 10:15NJDZach Parise: Interference2 min
  4. P3 17:06NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
  5. OT 4:41NJDPatrik Elias: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Elias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSNJD
34Shots on goal21
1.9Expected goals1.0
60Shot attempts41
20Faceoffs won22
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes14
20Hits15
10Blocked shots12
7Giveaways10
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.0 xGBOS 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1081 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.98 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEnd

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.

NJD winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).