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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Chicago Blackhawks 2, St. Louis Blues 4

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.

STL winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI212011011234
STL11011129430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:51CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:05STLAlexander SteenAssists: Mike Weaver, Carlo Colaiacovo · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:25CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:39STLEric BrewerAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:27STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: David Backes, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 10:22STLErik JohnsonAssists: Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:29STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:29CHIBen Eager: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 15:03STLKeith Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 15:03STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 15:03CHINick Boynton: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 15:03STLCam Janssen: Game misconduct10 min
  7. P2 17:37CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 12:02STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHISTL
34Shots on goal30
2.8Expected goals2.1
66Shot attempts50
28Faceoffs won28
2Power plays1
12Penalty minutes24
15Hits19
7Blocked shots20
6Giveaways4
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.1 xGCHI 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #649 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.37 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.

STL winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).