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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Los Angeles Kings 2, Nashville Predators 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.

NSH winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK0180429231
NSH08015011034

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 7:50LAKScott ParseGWGAssists: Jeff Halpern, Randy Jones · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P3 17:59LAKSean O'DonnellAssists: Alex Frolov, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 2:16LAKJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:00NSHJordin Tootoo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P2 11:07LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
  4. P3 16:45NSHSteve Sullivan: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 16:45LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Goc
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKNSH
31Shots on goal34
2.1Expected goals2.7
58Shot attempts64
35Faceoffs won26
1Power plays2
6Penalty minutes4
20Hits17
19Blocked shots16
11Giveaways16
14Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.7 xGLAK 2.1 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 7/100 · #1145 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.68 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.

NSH winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).