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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Florida Panthers 2, Buffalo Sabres 6

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 93% of the time.

BUF winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA1100213215
BUF210220210640

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:51FLAJeff TaffeAssists: Steve MacIntyre, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:22BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:09BUFTim KennedyAssists: Derek Roy, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:31BUFNathan GerbePPGWGAssists: Raffi Torres, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.38 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:38BUFAdam MairAssists: Matt Ellis, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–4
  6. P3 1:26FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Nathan Horton, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.16 xG2–4
  7. P3 7:32BUFTyler EnnisUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–5
  8. P3 8:05BUFHenrik TallinderAssists: Raffi Torres, Matt Ellis · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 10:31BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 15:29BUFHenrik Tallinder: Holding2 min
  3. P2 9:07FLAVictor Oreskovich: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P3 9:31FLAJason Garrison: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLABUF
15Shots on goal40
1.1Expected goals4.1
31Shot attempts64
28Faceoffs won27
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
26Hits12
14Blocked shots10
10Giveaways15
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.1 xGFLA 1.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #582 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.98 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 93% of the time.

BUF winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).