Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Montréal Canadiens 1

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.

MTL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR0218117227
MTL112013010135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:04MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:44CARBrandon SutterAssists: Chad LaRose, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:55CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Erik Cole, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:58CARTom Kostopoulos: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 7:18CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 10:08MTLRyan O'Byrne: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 15:06MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 15:06CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 0:38MTLMichael Cammalleri: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 6:04CARErik Cole: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARMTL
27Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals3.4
51Shot attempts68
22Faceoffs won25
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
20Hits18
21Blocked shots13
11Giveaways6
9Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.4 xGCAR 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #953 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.

MTL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).