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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 0

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.

PIT winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL161605217
PIT090909027

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:00TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Kurtis Foster · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:29TBLSteve DownieAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:22TBLMatt Lashoff: Boarding5 min
  2. P1 2:22TBLMatt Lashoff: Game misconduct10 min
  3. P1 11:45PITAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference2 min
  4. P1 14:40PITChris Kunitz: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P1 14:40TBLNate Thompson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P1 16:33PITJordan Leopold: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P1 18:02TBLTodd Fedoruk: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 1:59PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 6:46TBLMike Smith: Holding2 min
  10. P2 12:51TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 12:51PITBill Guerin: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 18:45TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 0:00TBLAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 0:00PITBill Guerin: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 5:06PITMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLPIT
17Shots on goal27
1.4Expected goals3.0
33Shot attempts64
18Faceoffs won31
4Power plays4
30Penalty minutes17
13Hits28
21Blocked shots6
4Giveaways11
4Takeaways0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.0 xGTBL 1.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1126 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.

PIT winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).