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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Minnesota Wild 0

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.

MIN winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI19116210435
MIN0505011021

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:20CHITomas KopeckyGWGAssists: Ben Eager, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:51CHIBen EagerUnassisted · Snap, 0.31 xG2–0
  3. P3 5:55CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Ben Eager, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
  4. P3 14:02CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 15:00CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 6:40MINAntti Miettinen: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 15:32CHIDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 16:01CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIMIN
35Shots on goal21
2.5Expected goals2.5
64Shot attempts52
32Faceoffs won34
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
16Hits22
19Blocked shots13
3Giveaways11
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.5 xGCHI 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 7/100 · #1142 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.

MIN winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).