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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

San Jose Sharks 1, Dallas Stars 5

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.

DAL winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS1130809130
DAL2931208529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:45DALSteve OttSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:46SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Dan Boyle, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:20DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P2 12:16DALBrian SutherbyAssists: Jamie Benn, Toby Petersen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:19DALSteve OttAssists: Brian Sutherby, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:27DALSteve OttPPAssists: James Neal, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:03DALMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  2. P1 3:01SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  3. P1 13:19SJSBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
  4. P1 14:04SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  5. P2 5:14DALSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 8:41DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
  7. P2 19:18SJSManny Malhotra: Interference2 min · PPG
  8. P2 0:00SJSDany Heatley: Elbowing2 min
  9. P3 3:59DALJames Neal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  10. P3 8:29DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min
  11. P3 13:39DALBrandon Segal: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 16:50SJSScott Nichol: Holding2 min
  13. P3 19:49DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 19:49SJSJason Demers: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 19:49SJSJason Demers: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Pavelski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSDAL
30Shots on goal29
2.6Expected goals3.6
54Shot attempts58
35Faceoffs won26
6Power plays7
19Penalty minutes17
31Hits40
12Blocked shots9
5Giveaways10
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.6 xGSJS 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 27/100 · #908 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.88 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.

DAL winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).