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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2

Away

Anaheim Ducks

5

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.

COL winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA2121728527
COL07111111229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:40ANASteve EmingerAssists: Saku Koivu, Jason Blake · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:56ANASaku KoivuAssists: Jason Blake · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:22COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:30ANAScott NiedermayerGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 2:34ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Jason Blake, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
  6. P3 12:02ANAJason BlakeAssists: Teemu Selanne, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
  7. P3 13:26COLDarcy TuckerAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 2:28COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  2. P2 2:28ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 3:31ANANick Bonino: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 10:18COLRyan Wilson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 12:57ANASheldon Brookbank: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 13:58ANABrendan Mikkelson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACOL
27Shots on goal29
2.1Expected goals3.6
41Shot attempts61
24Faceoffs won27
1Power plays3
11Penalty minutes7
22Hits18
16Blocked shots7
2Giveaways7
8Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.6 xGANA 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #705 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.

COL winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).