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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 31, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Phoenix Coyotes 1, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.

CGY winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX01106113130
CGY0911517231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 14:23CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Ian White, Jay Bouwmeester · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P3 3:46CGYAles KotalikGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P3 13:08PHXLee StempniakAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Mathieu Schneider · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 1:27PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:59CGYNigel Dawes: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 15:57PHXMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 9:50CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 13:37PHXMathieu Schneider: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P3 10:17PHXPetr Prucha: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Backlund
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXCGY
30Shots on goal31
1.7Expected goals2.7
57Shot attempts54
24Faceoffs won26
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
13Hits18
13Blocked shots11
7Giveaways8
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.7 xGPHX 1.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1008 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.92 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.

CGY winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).