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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 1, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Buffalo Sabres 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF1131506224
TOR19112213434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:51TORViktor StalbergAssists: Tyler Bozak, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:46BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:52TORGarnet ExelbyAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:23BUFSteve MontadorAssists: Jason Pominville, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:30TORLuke SchennGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:23TORFredrik SjostromENAssists: John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:46BUFMatt Ellis: Interference2 min
  2. P1 12:30TORBrayden Irwin: Boarding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 10:45BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 15:28BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 16:58BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 2:29BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 9:42BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 12:46TORLuca Caputi: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Irwin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFTOR
24Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals3.2
45Shot attempts66
26Faceoffs won20
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
20Hits17
20Blocked shots16
14Giveaways15
11Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.2 xGBUF 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #614 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.55 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).