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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 1, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 6

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Final

Home

New York Islanders

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.

NYI winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI08113314435
NYI3131926628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:11NYIBlake ComeauAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:17NYIBlake ComeauAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 7:45NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Jon Sim, Trent Hunter · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P2 3:06NYISean BergenheimAssists: Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
  5. P2 12:26PHIArron AshamAssists: Scott Hartnell, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
  6. P3 2:30NYITrent HunterGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Jon Sim · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
  7. P3 4:22PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–5
  8. P3 11:52NYIJon SimAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Dylan Reese · Snap, 0.04 xG2–6
  9. P3 14:53PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–6
  10. P3 18:51PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Claude Giroux, Lukas Krajicek · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 15:12PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 4:01NYIFreddy Meyer: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 9:26NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 9:26PHIRiley Cote: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 18:15PHIVille Leino: Interference2 min
  6. P3 3:41NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 7:56PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P3 12:39NYITrevor Gillies: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINYI
35Shots on goal28
3.7Expected goals2.6
63Shot attempts47
32Faceoffs won33
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
25Hits22
15Blocked shots20
9Giveaways8
2Takeaways22

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 2.6 xGPHI 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #375 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.

NYI winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).