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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 1, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Atlanta Thrashers 1, Washington Capitals 2

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

WSH winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL061707120
WSH1706111224

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:02WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 17:51ATLTim StapletonAssists: Colby Armstrong, Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P3 9:46WSHMatt BradleyGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, David Steckel · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 1:14WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 5:11ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 5:48WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:40ATLColby Armstrong: Holding2 min
  5. P2 12:40WSHShaone Morrisonn: Holding2 min
  6. P2 14:36WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Perreault
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLWSH
20Shots on goal24
2.7Expected goals2.4
52Shot attempts48
28Faceoffs won32
3Power plays1
4Penalty minutes8
14Hits20
16Blocked shots16
8Giveaways5
1Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.4 xGATL 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #958 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

WSH winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).