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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 1, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.

OTT winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CAR01121018020331
OTT11108213032435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:48OTTAnton VolchenkovAssists: Jason Spezza, Peter Regin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:44CARJamie McBainAssists: Rod Brind'Amour, Bryan Rodney · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:30CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:49OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Peter Regin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:04CARBrandon SutterAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:52OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. OTT Alex Kovalev scored
  2. 2. CAR Ray Whitney stopped
  3. 3. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
  4. 4. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
  5. 5. OTT Jason Spezza scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 4:46CARChad LaRose: Interference2 min
  2. P2 2:24OTTJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 2:24CARBrian Pothier: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 6:43OTTChris Kelly: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 19:00OTTAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 16:30CARBryan Rodney: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CAROTT
31Shots on goal35
3.4Expected goals3.5
59Shot attempts81
27Faceoffs won30
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
24Hits28
23Blocked shots19
8Giveaways18
9Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.5 xGCAR 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #79 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.59 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.

OTT winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).