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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 1, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Detroit Red Wings 3

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.

DET winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1606110222
DET1711619332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:21DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:51CBJAndrew MurrayAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:08DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:13DETTodd BertuzziGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brad Stuart · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:47CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Kristian Huselius · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 2:58DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
  2. P2 0:46CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 6:57CBJGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 8:45CBJRick Nash: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 17:42DETPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJDET
22Shots on goal32
1.8Expected goals3.2
40Shot attempts57
26Faceoffs won27
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
29Hits26
9Blocked shots7
7Giveaways9
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.2 xGCBJ 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #878 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.

DET winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).