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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 1, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

St. Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 3

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.

NSH winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL111110012233
NSH01521215332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:13STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Patrik Berglund · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:11STLAndy McDonaldAssists: David Perron, Patrik Berglund · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:12NSHDustin BoydAssists: Cody Franson, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:56NSHColin WilsonAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:05NSHSteve SullivanGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:29NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 6:01NSHPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:26STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 12:59STLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
  5. P1 15:02NSHColin Wilson: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 15:02STLRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 15:02STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 16:15NSHSteve Sullivan: Interference2 min
  9. P2 7:48STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 13:45NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 13:45STLDJ King: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 15:05NSHDustin Boyd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. P2 17:01STLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 10:28NSHRyan Suter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLNSH
33Shots on goal32
2.1Expected goals3.7
53Shot attempts60
25Faceoffs won34
5Power plays5
20Penalty minutes20
21Hits23
18Blocked shots14
6Giveaways13
13Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.7 xGSTL 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #395 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.61 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.

NSH winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).