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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 2, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

New York Rangers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 0

Away

New York Rangers

5

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR470718522
TBL0608016030

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:09NYRBrandon PrustGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 3:34NYRMarc StaalAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P1 11:21NYRVinny ProspalUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
  4. P1 14:55NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Anders Eriksson · Slap, 0.03 xG4–0
  5. P3 13:50NYRAaron VorosAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 13:34TBLAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P2 4:13NYRJody Shelley: Holding2 min
  3. P2 4:53NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 16:06TBLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 0:17NYRMarian Gaborik: Holding2 min
  6. P3 5:12TBLVladimir Mihalik: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 8:58NYRBrandon Prust: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 14:37TBLTodd Fedoruk: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Thompson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRTBL
22Shots on goal30
1.8Expected goals2.6
37Shot attempts54
19Faceoffs won37
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes16
12Hits18
9Blocked shots8
6Giveaways13
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.6 xGNYR 1.8 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 4/100 · #1174 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.57 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).