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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 2, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Edmonton Oilers 3, Dallas Stars 6

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.

DAL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM0631507328
DAL31009316635

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:51DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:42DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Slap, 0.27 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:53DALJere LehtinenAssists: Brian Sutherby, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–3
  4. P2 4:46EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ryan Potulny · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P2 9:06EDMMarc-Antoine PouliotAssists: Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:20EDMEthan MoreauAssists: Ryan Whitney, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
  7. P3 2:22DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
  8. P3 8:35DALMike RibeiroAssists: Trevor Daley, Kari Lehtonen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:07DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:23DALBrian Sutherby: Holding2 min
  2. P1 4:59DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:59EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 4:59DALMatt Niskanen: Delaying game2 min
  5. P1 10:35DALBrian Sutherby: Interference2 min
  6. P1 14:46EDMEthan Moreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 6:02DALToby Petersen: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 17:19EDMAaron Johnson: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 4:00DALMark Fistric: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 10:59DALMark Fistric: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 17:22EDMZack Stortini: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMDAL
28Shots on goal35
3.0Expected goals3.2
57Shot attempts61
15Faceoffs won38
6Power plays3
11Penalty minutes17
23Hits14
10Blocked shots12
8Giveaways16
2Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.2 xGEDM 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #88 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.52 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.

DAL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).