Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 2, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 1

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

COL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY0911414227
COL013011112136

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:28CGYNigel DawesAssists: David Moss, Craig Conroy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P3 2:11CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Cory Sarich, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P3 7:32COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 8:49COLChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:10COLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P2 4:45CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
  4. P3 3:30COLJohn-Michael Liles: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCOL
27Shots on goal36
1.6Expected goals1.6
55Shot attempts55
35Faceoffs won18
3Power plays1
2Penalty minutes6
24Hits24
15Blocked shots19
2Giveaways12
8Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 1.6 xGCGY 1.6 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 19/100 · #989 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

COL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).