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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.

PIT winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
ATL161111502324
PIT0121921212435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:12ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Nik Antropov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:05PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:23ATLTim StapletonPPAssists: Johnny Oduya, Toby Enstrom · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P3 3:27PITTyler KennedyAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:31ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
  6. P3 18:46PITSergei GoncharPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:50PITJordan LeopoldGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 4:13ATLEvander Kane: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 5:06PITBill Guerin: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 18:25PITBill Guerin: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:25ATLJim Slater: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 7:05PITJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 11:23ATLChris Thorburn: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 12:17ATLToby Enstrom: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 13:26PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 15:25PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 11:58ATLZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
  11. P3 11:58PITRuslan Fedotenko: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 17:33ATLJim Slater: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLPIT
24Shots on goal35
2.6Expected goals3.0
42Shot attempts72
36Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
17Penalty minutes15
27Hits23
17Blocked shots10
2Giveaways12
1Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.0 xGATL 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #61 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.67 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.

PIT winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).