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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Ottawa Senators 1, New York Islanders 4

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

New York Islanders

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.

NYI winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0120819129
NYI07311115433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:19NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Blake Comeau, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:19NYIDylan ReeseGWGAssists: Richard Park, Freddy Meyer · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:46NYIJack HillenAssists: Tim Jackman, Richard Park · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
  4. P3 4:13NYISean BergenheimAssists: John Tavares, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
  5. P3 13:27OTTMatt CullenAssists: Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 8:57OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 11:18NYISean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 15:08NYIJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
  4. P1 0:00NYISean Bergenheim: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 0:00OTTNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 10:34NYITrent Hunter: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 2:32NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 2:32NYITrevor Gillies: Misconduct10 min
  9. P3 2:32OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 2:32OTTJarkko Ruutu: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 7:11OTTAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 7:11OTTAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 7:11OTTAndy Sutton: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNYI
29Shots on goal33
3.3Expected goals3.0
51Shot attempts56
23Faceoffs won27
3Power plays3
36Penalty minutes26
28Hits21
13Blocked shots12
7Giveaways12
6Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.0 xGOTT 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1050 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.

NYI winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).