Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 311 | 06 | 11 | 424 |
| DET | 110 | 17 | 114 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15DETBrian RafalskiPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:36NSHShea WeberAssists: Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:01NSHMartin EratAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:01DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:17NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Dustin Boyd, Joel Ward · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 19:23DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:16NSHRyan SuterGWGAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:06NSHFrancis Bouillon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:04DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:55NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:46NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:35DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).