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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS051901313230
TOR114080501128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:10TORColton OrrAssists: Dion Phaneuf, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:01BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. OT 3:25BOSMiroslav SatanGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 9:15BOSMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:38BOSDennis Seidenberg: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 10:45TORChristian Hanson: Interference2 min
  4. P3 1:52BOSBrad Marchand: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P3 11:57TORViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSTOR
30Shots on goal28
2.5Expected goals2.0
71Shot attempts60
29Faceoffs won24
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
25Hits28
20Blocked shots22
10Giveaways17
7Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.0 xGBOS 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #815 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.20 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).