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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Buffalo Sabres 0, Montréal Canadiens 3

Away

Buffalo Sabres

0

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.

MTL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF0130808029
MTL11816114338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:03MTLRyan O'ByrneGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:41MTLTom PyattAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
  3. P3 6:37MTLSergei KostitsynAssists: Travis Moen, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:48BUFCraig Rivet: Interference2 min
  2. P1 6:24MTLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 9:42BUFHenrik Tallinder: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P1 13:01MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:33BUFAdam Mair: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 14:30MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
  7. P3 11:42BUFJochen Hecht: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 18:07MTLMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 18:07BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 18:07BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 18:07BUFPaul Gaustad: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P3 18:07BUFPaul Gaustad: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 18:07MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFMTL
29Shots on goal38
2.2Expected goals3.6
57Shot attempts58
18Faceoffs won36
3Power plays5
27Penalty minutes13
26Hits11
11Blocked shots14
5Giveaways7
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.6 xGBUF 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1155 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.

MTL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).