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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

New Jersey Devils 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0

Away

New Jersey Devils

4

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.

CAR winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD21201027429
CAR0707012026

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:13NJDDainius ZubrusPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:18NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, David Clarkson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P3 7:34NJDZach PariseAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
  4. P3 18:28NJDDavid ClarksonENAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 4:16NJDMike Mottau: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 11:18CARChad LaRose: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 2:46CARRod Brind'Amour: Holding2 min
  4. P2 7:32NJDBryce Salvador: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 18:43NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 18:55CARJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Dwyer
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDCAR
29Shots on goal26
4.6Expected goals2.4
61Shot attempts56
35Faceoffs won22
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
34Hits36
15Blocked shots15
3Giveaways6
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.4 xGNJD 4.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 7/100 · #1147 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.

CAR winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).