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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Dallas Stars 1, St. Louis Blues 2

Away

Dallas Stars

1

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

STL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0711305125
STL051919223

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:12STLT.J. OshieAssists: Roman Polak, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P2 18:11DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:14STLCarlo ColaiacovoPPGWGAssists: David Perron, David Backes · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 8:01STLPaul Kariya: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:12DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 15:28DALMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 18:47DALLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 1:39DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 1:39STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 7:12DALJames Neal: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 7:12STLRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 10:52STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
  10. P2 10:52DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 10:52STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 14:36DALBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
  13. P2 16:55STLJay McClement: Hooking2 min · PPG
  14. P2 19:26STLPatrik Berglund: Too many men on the ice2 min
  15. P3 6:51DALJere Lehtinen: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Ott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALSTL
25Shots on goal23
2.6Expected goals2.2
48Shot attempts46
27Faceoffs won21
4Power plays5
19Penalty minutes17
23Hits21
15Blocked shots12
7Giveaways7
3Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.2 xGDAL 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #757 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.32 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

STL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).