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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 3, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Edmonton Oilers 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.

PHX winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM190719020227
PHX16118019011344

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:42PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:48EDMRyan JonesAssists: Tom Gilbert, Zack Stortini · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:01PHXDaniel WinnikAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:36EDMDustin PennerAssists: Tom Gilbert, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Wojtek Wolski stopped
  2. 2. EDM Shawn Horcoff stopped
  3. 3. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
  4. 4. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
  5. 5. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
  6. 6. EDM Robert Nilsson stopped
  7. 7. PHX Lee Stempniak stopped
  8. 8. EDM Dustin Penner stopped
  9. 9. PHX Adrian Aucoin stopped
  10. 10. EDM Marc-Antoine Pouliot stopped
  11. 11. PHX Shane Doan stopped
  12. 12. EDM Mike Comrie stopped
  13. 13. PHX Petr Prucha stopped
  14. 14. EDM Tom Gilbert stopped
  15. 15. PHX Matthew Lombardi scored
  16. 16. EDM Ryan Jones stopped
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 4:54EDMJason Strudwick: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:13EDMRyan Jones: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 16:36PHXTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 10:24EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 13:02EDMAaron Johnson: Interference2 min
  6. P2 15:32PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 18:12EDMDustin Penner: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 1:35EDMDustin Penner: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 6:37EDMAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 7:14EDMRyan Whitney: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 9:04EDMJason Strudwick: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 18:24PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMPHX
27Shots on goal44
2.1Expected goals3.5
47Shot attempts73
24Faceoffs won37
3Power plays9
18Penalty minutes6
26Hits18
14Blocked shots10
9Giveaways5
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.5 xGEDM 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #289 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.01 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.

PHX winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).