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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 4, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Calgary Flames 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.

CHI winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY01015011126
CHI21211118431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:56CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Ben Eager · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:06CHITroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:32CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brent Seabrook, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:34CGYIan WhiteAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 17:14CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 9:57CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 16:13CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 12:25CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 19:13CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCHI attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCHI
26Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals3.9
50Shot attempts55
28Faceoffs won31
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
17Hits21
14Blocked shots16
1Giveaways13
3Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.9 xGCGY 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHICGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #934 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.65 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.

CHI winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).