Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 4, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

San Jose Sharks 4, Colorado Avalanche 5 (OT)

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
SJS210072500422
COL1521411714540

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:01SJSDouglas MurrayAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:57SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Jed Ortmeyer, Torrey Mitchell · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
  3. P1 13:41COLKyle QuinceyAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:58COLPeter MuellerAssists: Adam Foote, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:07COLPeter MuellerAssists: Matt Duchene, Scott Hannan · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 0:20COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Peter Mueller · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–4
  7. P3 8:13SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
  8. P3 14:41SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dany Heatley, Ryane Clowe · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–4
  9. OT 2:59COLJohn-Michael LilesGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Milan Hejduk · Deflected, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 11:35COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:35COLStephane Yelle: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 19:03COLStephane Yelle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 9:12SJSRyane Clowe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 10:38SJSRob Blake: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 19:13SJSScott Nichol: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P3 4:22SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min
  8. P3 11:26SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min
  9. P3 0:00SJSRyane Clowe: Holding the stick2 min
  10. OT 2:59COLRyan Wilson: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Couture
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCOL
22Shots on goal40
1.6Expected goals3.6
40Shot attempts69
32Faceoffs won30
3Power plays6
12Penalty minutes16
16Hits26
17Blocked shots12
4Giveaways10
6Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.6 xGSJS 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #40 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.37 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).