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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 4, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Minnesota Wild 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.

VAN winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MIN030931500327
VAN11111611013440

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:02VANRyan KeslerSHAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:25VANKyle WellwoodPPAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Pavol Demitra · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P3 10:00MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Antti Miettinen, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:05VANAlexander EdlerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:18MINCody AlmondAssists: Casey Wellman, Nick Schultz · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:41MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:15VANSami SaloPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 4:52VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
  2. P1 18:53VANSami Salo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P2 1:01VANRyan Kesler: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 4:56MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 7:24MINMarek Zidlicky: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:02MINJames Sheppard: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 14:52MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 17:29VANMichael Grabner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P2 18:14VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 0:57MINCam Barker: Interference2 min
  11. P3 2:30VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 5:08VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. P3 8:04VANMikael Samuelsson: Holding2 min · PPG
  14. P3 11:27MINCam Barker: Interference2 min
  15. OT 1:28MINGreg Zanon: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINVAN
27Shots on goal40
2.9Expected goals4.1
55Shot attempts71
25Faceoffs won29
8Power plays7
14Penalty minutes16
15Hits5
21Blocked shots17
4Giveaways3
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 4.1 xGMIN 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #201 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.97 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.

VAN winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).