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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 5, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Minnesota Wild 1, Edmonton Oilers 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.

EDM winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0131706126
EDM2908214431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:33EDMDustin PennerAssists: Taylor Chorney, Ryan Potulny · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:12EDMEthan MoreauSHGWGAssists: Tom Gilbert, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:12MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nate Prosser · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:16EDMEthan MoreauAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–3
  5. P3 15:39EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Ryan Potulny, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 6:35MINJohn Scott: Instigator2 min
  2. P1 6:35MINJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:35MINJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
  4. P1 6:35EDMDean Arsene: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 9:39EDMJason Strudwick: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 6:21EDMDean Arsene: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 8:48MINJohn Scott: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 15:33MINNate Prosser: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINEDM
26Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals3.6
56Shot attempts59
24Faceoffs won25
2Power plays4
23Penalty minutes9
18Hits16
18Blocked shots17
16Giveaways20
11Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.6 xGMIN 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #919 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.

EDM winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).