Tue, Apr 6, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
New York Rangers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 213 | 013 | 06 | 232 |
| BUF | 212 | 210 | 18 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Anders Eriksson, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:57BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:56BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Myers, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 18:18NYRPA ParenteauPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–2
- P2 5:17BUFJochen HechtGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 13:22BUFToni LydmanAssists: Drew Stafford, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 2:06BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:55BUFDrew Stafford: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:00NYRMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:56BUFDerek Roy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:56NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:34BUFMatt Ellis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:33NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:53BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45NYRChris Drury: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:33NYRJody Shelley: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:30NYRJody Shelley: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:30BUFRyan Miller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).