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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.

NYI winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL0521519020331
NYI11509212061442

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:29NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:08MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:44MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Josh Gorges · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–1
  4. P3 2:01NYISean BergenheimAssists: Dylan Reese · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:20MTLMaxim LapierreAssists: Mathieu Darche, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:59NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Richard Park, Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Matt Moulson scored
  2. 2. MTL Maxim Lapierre stopped
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 1:04NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min
  2. P1 17:44MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 8:33NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 15:28MTLAndrei Markov: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 15:28NYITrent Hunter: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 18:28MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
  7. OT 3:11MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLNYI
31Shots on goal42
3.0Expected goals4.2
52Shot attempts81
26Faceoffs won23
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
30Hits31
26Blocked shots14
15Giveaways13
17Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.2 xGMTL 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #114 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.43 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.

NYI winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).