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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

New Jersey Devils 3, Atlanta Thrashers 0

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD1811118327
ATL080902019

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:28NJDDean McAmmondGWGAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:51NJDZach PariseAssists: Paul Martin, Bryce Salvador · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P3 0:10NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Martin Skoula, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 7:11NJDPatrik Elias: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 12:19ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 1:35NJDMark Fraser: Holding2 min
  4. P3 1:35ATLTim Stapleton: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDATL
27Shots on goal19
2.7Expected goals1.9
48Shot attempts40
22Faceoffs won20
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
11Hits16
14Blocked shots13
7Giveaways6
9Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.9 xGNJD 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 7/100 · #1146 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).