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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Carolina Hurricanes 8, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

8

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR52321513841
TBL19213215537

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:44TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:04CARDrayson BowmanPPAssists: Zach Boychuk, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:37CARRod Brind'AmourAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Jamie McBain · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P1 17:57CARJussi JokinenAssists: Eric Staal, Chad LaRose · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P1 19:29CARRod Brind'AmourAssists: Bryan Rodney, Tom Kostopoulos · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
  6. P1 19:40CARDrayson BowmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–1
  7. P2 4:47TBLBrandon BochenskiAssists: Nate Thompson, Andrej Meszaros · Deflected, 0.05 xG5–2
  8. P2 6:43CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Erik Cole, Brett Carson · Snap, 0.17 xG6–2
  9. P2 9:47CAREric StaalAssists: Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.18 xG7–2
  10. P2 14:09TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.19 xG7–3
  11. P3 15:17TBLAndrej MeszarosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–4
  12. P3 16:42TBLBrandon BochenskiAssists: Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.02 xG7–5
  13. P3 19:35CARChad LaRoseENAssists: Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.59 xG8–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:40CARBryan Rodney: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 6:56TBLMatt Lashoff: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 2:24CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 2:24TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 5:10TBLBrandon Bochenski: Holding2 min
  6. P2 5:57CARRod Brind'Amour: Holding2 min
  7. P2 7:31TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 11:32TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 11:32CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 11:32TBLZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 2:40CARTom Kostopoulos: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARTBL
41Shots on goal37
4.4Expected goals2.5
62Shot attempts68
26Faceoffs won35
4Power plays3
16Penalty minutes18
8Hits12
15Blocked shots13
6Giveaways12
3Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.5 xGCAR 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #69 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).