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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Ottawa Senators 5, Florida Panthers 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

5

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT11121028529
FLA08111115234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:44OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:58OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Chris Neil, Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
  3. P2 8:41FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:02OTTChris NeilGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 4:45OTTMike FisherAssists: Alex Kovalev, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
  6. P3 6:30OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Neil · Tip-in, 0.38 xG5–1
  7. P3 7:56FLAKamil KrepsAssists: Nick Tarnasky, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:43OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:43FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:00FLABryan McCabe: High sticking double minor4 min
  4. P1 17:22FLARadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 1:31OTTAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 4:05OTTAndy Sutton: Interference2 min
  7. P2 17:22FLAJason Garrison: Holding2 min
  8. P3 14:01OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Reinprecht
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTFLA
29Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals2.7
53Shot attempts57
30Faceoffs won27
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
24Hits30
14Blocked shots13
4Giveaways3
8Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.7 xGOTT 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #700 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).