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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Chicago Blackhawks 5, Dallas Stars 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.

DAL winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI215112211538
DAL05112111228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:36CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:28CHIColin FraserAssists: Brent Seabrook, Adam Burish · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:58CHIJonathan ToewsSHGWGAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
  4. P2 7:02DALSteve OttPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P3 2:27CHIColin FraserAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
  6. P3 9:53CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Adam Burish, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
  7. P3 12:45DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:36CHIAdam Burish: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P2 4:56CHIDuncan Keith: Delaying game2 min
  3. P2 6:27CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  4. P2 9:47CHIPatrick Kane: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 13:49DALKarlis Skrastins: Holding2 min
  6. P2 15:22CHIDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 5:01DALMike Modano: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIDAL
38Shots on goal28
3.3Expected goals2.8
62Shot attempts64
28Faceoffs won36
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
8Hits24
18Blocked shots11
8Giveaways16
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.8 xGCHI 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #716 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.

DAL winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).