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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 1

Away

San Jose Sharks

2

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.

CGY winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS11211004226
CGY012012115139

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:15SJSRob BlakePPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Jason Demers · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:47SJSJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
  3. P3 4:20CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Matt Stajan · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 8:17CGYIan White: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:34SJSDouglas Murray: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 1:48SJSNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 17:53SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 3:16SJSRob Blake: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  6. P3 9:37CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Conroy won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCGY
26Shots on goal39
3.0Expected goals2.0
47Shot attempts66
27Faceoffs won29
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
11Hits22
17Blocked shots9
5Giveaways8
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.0 xGSJS 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #981 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.

CGY winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).