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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.

VAN winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
COL21111205031431
VAN1811416040332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:17COLDarcy TuckerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:59VANDaniel SedinAssists: Sami Salo, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:56COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:11VANMason RaymondAssists: Alexander Edler, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P2 14:07COLPaul StastnyAssists: Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 15:54VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. VAN Kyle Wellwood stopped
  2. 2. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
  3. 3. VAN Pavol Demitra stopped
  4. 4. COL Chris Stewart stopped
  5. 5. VAN Ryan Kesler stopped
  6. 6. COL Matt Duchene scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 12:23VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 14:27VANMason Raymond: Holding2 min
  3. P2 14:27COLScott Hannan: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 18:40COLTJ Galiardi: Interference2 min
  5. P2 18:40VANMikael Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 14:13COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLVAN
31Shots on goal32
2.3Expected goals3.3
47Shot attempts65
21Faceoffs won24
1Power plays1
6Penalty minutes6
17Hits18
14Blocked shots10
2Giveaways6
8Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.3 xGCOL 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #179 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.22 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.

VAN winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).